As Lion Global, we are pleased to share our current market assessment and outlook in order to help our business partners safeguard their operational processes and maintain full transparency regarding the risks ahead.
ADNOC and QatarEnergy Price Increases (Cost Pressure)
As of July, ADNOC (UAE) has increased its FOB selling price by USD 140/MT, bringing the price to USD 1,000/MT FOB. Likewise, QatarEnergy has raised its FOB Ras Laffan/Mesaieed price by USD 85/MT to USD 890/MT FOB. These increases indicate that global feedstock acquisition costs continue to establish a higher pricing floor across the sulphur market.
Qatar–China Route and Additional Costs
Delivered prices from Qatar to China are expected to range between USD 1,015–1,030/MT, excluding any additional war risk or insurance premiums. This reflects the direct impact of elevated logistics risks on final market pricing.
Kazakhstan’s Export Suspension (Major Supply Shock)
Under Resolution No. 1363 dated 27 June 2026, Kazakhstan has suspended all industrial sulphur exports indefinitely. As one of the primary suppliers to major consuming regions such as China, Morocco, and Europe, Kazakhstan’s withdrawal from the market has created a significant global supply deficit and intensified upward pressure on prices.
Russian Restrictions and Middle East Geopolitical Risks
Russia’s decision to extend its export restrictions through the end of 2026, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions across the Middle East and persistent maritime security risks, continues to disrupt supply security. With global inventories already following a declining trend, these developments are amplifying market volatility.
Elevated Freight Rates
Ocean freight rates remain at elevated levels. Freight from the Middle East to India is currently estimated at USD 105–118/MT, while shipments to China are trading in the range of USD 120–140/MT.
Lion Global Strategic Assessment
What Has July Brought to the Sulphur Market?
July has marked a period of tightening supply and escalating costs across the global sulphur market. Kazakhstan’s export suspension and Russia’s continued restrictions have significantly reduced the availability of freely traded material, while logistical bottlenecks in the Middle East continue to exert upward pressure on prices.
From Lion Global’s perspective, securing raw material on time and at competitive costs in the coming months will depend less on opportunistic spot purchases and more on maintaining strong, reliable, and proactive supply partnerships. Under current market conditions, where both pricing and supply risks have increased substantially, early procurement planning, strategic inventory management, and diversified sourcing strategies have become essential for maintaining operational continuity.
