Global Sulphur Market: April 2026 Deep Analysis

Key figures at a glance

+440% — Indonesia CFR price rise (Jul 2024 → Jan 2026)
5.13 Mt — Estimated global supply deficit in 2026
~50% — Share of seaborne sulphur trade through Hormuz Strait
$28.3B — Projected global market size by 2030

01 | Price action

Sulphur entered 2026 at historically elevated levels. The Indonesia CFR price surged 440% from $101/t in July 2024 to $554/t by January 29, 2026, driven by exponential growth in nickel refining demand.

Regional spot prices as of March 2026 (IMARC Group):

Northeast Asia: $0.61/kg
India: $0.50/kg
Europe: $0.41/kg
Middle East: $0.33/kg
North America: $0.20/kg

A single Tüpraş tender in late March told the full story: April-loading sulphur from Izmit was awarded at $662–672/t FCA — a jump of ~$155/t from the previous tender just weeks earlier.

02 | Supply-demand: the structural squeeze

HDIN Research estimates the 2026 global supply deficit at approximately 5.13 million tonnes — a number driven by a fundamental paradox:

“The global energy transition suppresses refinery utilization rates to reduce carbon emissions — yet this directly limits sulphur production, creating a ceiling effect that collides with surging industrial demand.”

Sulphur is not a primary product. It is a by-product of oil refining and gas processing. As the energy transition reduces refinery throughput over coming decades, IEA forecasts suggest global refining capacity will peak after 2035 — placing a structural ceiling on supply growth.

Supply increments in 2026 are modest: China adds ~400,000 t, the Middle East adds ~2.1 Mt. Russian capacity recovery remains highly uncertain (SunSirs).

On the demand side, IMARC Group projects global sulphur volume to reach 94.82 million tonnes by 2034 at a CAGR of 3.04% — and that figure was calculated before the Hormuz crisis fully materialized.

03 | Three forces reshaping the market

Russia’s export ban — confirmed and extended

On March 31, 2026, the Russian government signed Resolution No. 350, extending the ban on exports of liquid, granulated, and lump sulphur through June 30, 2026 (Interfax / Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade). The stated rationale: protecting domestic fertilizer production and national food security.

As one European trading source told S&P Global Platts: “Russia has shifted from being the primary major exporter to being a net importer — the market is going through a structural reshape.”

Exceptions apply only to EAEU member states and humanitarian shipments.

Indonesia’s nickel sector: demand engine and fault line

Indonesia controls over 50% of global nickel production and its HPAL (High-Pressure Acid Leaching) plants require roughly 3 tonnes of sulphuric acid per tonne of nickel produced.

Key data points:

Indonesia imported 5.35 million tonnes of sulphur in 2025 — up 48% year-on-year
Sulphur costs account for ~50% of HPAL plant operating expenditure (Project Blue)
HPAL plants hold only 1–2 months of sulphur inventory on average (Reuters)
75% of Indonesia’s sulphur originates from the Middle East (CRU)

Two new risk factors have emerged in Q1 2026: Indonesia’s government is expected to cut nickel ore quotas to 250–260 Mt (from 370 Mt in 2025), and in March, four Chinese-operated nickel plants at Morowali Industrial Park suspended operations following a fatal landslide — affecting ~30% of Indonesia’s HPAL capacity (BC Insight / CRU).

Strait of Hormuz: the world’s sulphur chokepoint

The conflict that began on February 28, 2026 has produced what IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol described as “the greatest threat to global energy security in history.”

The Hormuz Strait — through which approximately 50% of all seaborne sulphur trade passes (IEA) — has been effectively closed since early March. The Middle East accounts for 24% of global sulphur production of 83.87 million tonnes annually (USGS).

IEA’s Birol stated in early April: “In addition to oil and gas, vital commodities — petrochemicals, fertilizers, sulphur — are very important for global supply chains. We are heading towards a major, major disruption.”

Africa’s copper belt (DRC, Zambia) imports ~2 million tonnes of sulphur annually — 90% from the Middle East. The scramble for available supply is now pitting nickel refiners, copper miners, and fertilizer manufacturers against one another in a tightening spot market.

As of April 8, a temporary ceasefire was agreed. However, the strait remains effectively closed as of April 9, with Iran limiting vessel passage (Wikipedia / 2026 Hormuz Crisis).

04 | Sulphur's new identity: three new demand frontiers

Sulphur’s application base is structurally diversifying:

LFP Batteries: Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries now supply nearly half of the global EV market — up from under 10% in 2020 (IEA). Their production requires high-purity sulphuric acid at scale. ChemAnalyst confirmed in January 2026 that LFP demand has broken sulphur’s traditional seasonal pricing cycle.
Nickel HPAL (Indonesia): The industrialization of Indonesia’s laterite nickel resources has created what SunSirs calls a “concentrated demand release” dynamic with no historical precedent in sulphur demand terms.
Future Frontier — Lithium-Sulphur Batteries: If sulphide-based solid-state battery technology commercializes, demand for high-purity sulphur could multiply several times over current levels — opening an entirely new strategic growth window (SunSirs, January 2026).

05 | Fertilizers: different risks depending on where you farm

The impact differs sharply by country income level and purchasing practice.

Developed countries (US, EU, Brazil): Large commercial farmers in the US and Brazil entered the 2026 spring season with pre-purchased fertilizer inventories. The disruption's primary effect on these markets is input cost inflation for the autumn 2026 planting season (US winter wheat application: July-September; spring corn preplant: October-November).

EU direct exposure is minimal: less than 0.5% of EU fertilizer imports originate from Hormuz-dependent Gulf states.

The FAO's Chief Economist Maximo Torero identified the most immediately impacted countries: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka in South Asia; Sudan, Kenya, and Somalia in East Africa; and Turkey and Jordan in the Middle East.

India's planting season begins in June. IFPRI researcher Avinash Kishore confirmed as of late March that preparation for fertilizer inputs "needs to begin already." India imports nitrogen fertilizers and also imports the natural gas used to produce them domestically, leaving it doubly exposed.

06 | Outlook

Short term: EIA’s April 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Hormuz disruptions to persist through late 2026. Russia’s ban through June 30 removes a key balancing mechanism. Prices remain volatile and regionally fragmented.

Medium term: The global sulphur market is projected to reach $28.31 billion by 2030 at an 11.9% CAGR (The Business Research Company). SunSirs expects China’s domestic price to test and potentially break through the 4,000–6,000 RMB/t historical ceiling in 2026.

Structural risk: The energy transition simultaneously suppresses sulphur supply (fewer refineries) and amplifies demand (battery metals processing). This mismatch — documented by HDIN Research, SunSirs, and the IEA — is the defining challenge for the market through 2030 and beyond.

Sources

First published on LinkedIn. Prices are the market assessments of the week they were written, not a current offer.View on LinkedIn →