After last week’s price increases in key supply regions, bullish sentiment has become present in Asian markets following a month of relative stability. This shift is partly driven by expectations of phosphate exports from China, despite no official confirmation. Although most other regions were assessed unchanged, the broader market tone has shifted towards higher prices.
Demand in Asia, which has supported the current sulphur price environment since late last year, has picked up again after a month of relative calm. Market talk suggests phosphate exports from China may resume in late May, although there has been no official confirmation regarding the timing or volume of these exports.
After China’s Labour Day holiday and reports suggesting phosphate export quotas, domestic prices rose by RMB40-50/t ($6-7/t), reaching their highest level since July 2022.
Internationally, activity has increased and indications place the Chinese import market at $300-$310/t CFR, with two transactions reported within this range. Although unverified, these transactions align with market price indications that see the Chinese market as headed for a period of increased demand.
Indonesia is also feeling the bullish trend. While it managed to avoid crossing the $300/t CFR mark in the last month, the latest transactions were close, ranging from $296-298/t CFR.
This week, a tender is said to have received offers in the $330s/t CFR. Though the final award price could not be verified at the time of writing, this week’s market indications suggest prices have surpassed the $310/t level.
Reflecting a decrease from last week although retaining its upward trend are prices in the Middle East which were assessed at $300-305/t FOB as the latest Qatar tender was awarded at that range. Still, the release of the region’s monthly contracts at a range of $285-290/t FOB appears to have tempered market expectations reflected in this week’s lower price assessment. With demand expected to increase in Asia, the price is likely to retain its upwards momentum, according to market participants.
In the Mediterranean, prices are showing bullish momentum, fuelled by strong demand across the region. A tender closing on March 8 has attracted significant market attention, as it is expected to establish new price benchmarks. With demand continuing to rise and supply understood to be tightening, the market is poised for further price adjustments in the coming weeks, according to market participants.
While most global benchmarks held steady, sentiment has shifted, with price increases expected soon. Overall, the global sulphur market is bullish and closely watching for updates on the timing and volume of phosphate exports from China.
